NASCAR has implemented a new qualifying procedure in 2005 that guarantees the top 35 teams in NEXTEL Cup Series point standings a spot in the race. Each team will qualify for a race and then be placed in their starting position based on their qualifying time. However, if you are a team that sits outside the top 35 in NEXTEL Cup Series points, you're not guaranteed a spot in the race even if your qualifying time is better than a top 35 team. Those "outsider" teams ultimately qualify against each other while the others are protected.

The reasoning behind the new procedure is because NASCAR wanted to ensure that sponsors who are paying out the big dollars have a guaranteed spot in the race. Last year, Valvoline and Caterpillar who are primary sponsors for two different NASCAR teams, didn't make a race due to their driver not qualifying on time. In addition to not being able to qualifying based on their lap times, they used up their allotment of provisionals. Provisionals were used as a safety net for full time teams that were out qualified by other teams. For 2005, NASCAR terminated the use of the provisional system and elected to use the new guaranteed version.

I'm not a big fan of guarantees in racing. I'm a firm believer that you must earn what you get. One very noticeable outcome to this new procedure is - silence. We aren't hearing the moans from industry insiders like we did when NASCAR implemented the free pass "Lucky Dog" rule that eliminated racing back to the caution flag. We saw many drivers step up to the microphone and criticize it. The rule, implemented for safety reasons gave the driver with the highest scored position not on the lead lap, a free pass to be able to get back on the lead lap. Many in the sport took the approach that I'm taking now about giving someone something they didn't earn. Tony Eury Sr., who was the crew chief for Dale Earnhardt Jr., said "It was unfair for leaders who race hard to put a driver a lap down, only to have NASCAR give it back. It's a stupid rule, and it's going to be stupid as long as they use it."

In my opinion the same argument can be said about the new qualifying procedure. It's unfair for a team who races hard and qualifies better than a team inside the top 35, only to have NASCAR send them home. Matt Kenseth also said about the free pass, "A free pass isn't really racing." Again, I can say the same thing about the new qualifying procedure. Is a free pass into the race really earning their spot to be in the race?

We haven't heard a peep from any of the drivers and owners about the new qualifying procedure and as I sit here today, I'm sure we won't. Why would a heavily funded team, who is well established in the sport complain about being protected? It's not going to happen. For those drivers, their job just got easier. For established owners, they're prayers must have been answered because they now hold the golden key. They have the sponsors, the needed points and the guarantee that their car is in the show.

How would you feel if I told you that the only guaranteed way you could attend a NEXTEL Cup Series event is through purchasing a ticket, you had to be a NEXTEL cellular phone subscriber and you had to have purchased a ticket from a past event? For those of you who do not qualify for the guaranteed ticket into the event, a small number of tickets would be available for purchase at the racetrack's ticket office. Fans would need to show up on race day, wait in line for the ticket office to open and the tickets would be sold on a first come, first serve basis.

Now, use that same rational and apply it to what a potential new team owner or a lower funded team feels about this new system. Under the new procedure, a newer team's chances of qualifying for a race are greatly minimized putting the sponsor at greater financial risk. Under this new procedure, a sponsor could pay the bills, but never see their car in a race. Sponsors will be more inclined to go with one of the major established teams, creating a situation where the NASCAR rich keep getting richer. This leaves NASCAR's philosophy of "creating a level playing ground" for teams in the dust. How can one look at this new procedure and not see that it will hurt any new potential team owner and the so-called "Field Fillers" from last season? It decreases their chances of success because it minimizes their opportunities.

Let's use Robby Gordon for example. He left Richard Childress Racing last year and started a new team. Fan or not of Robby Gordon, he worked very hard to secure sponsorship for his team and when looking at his accomplishments, he did quite well for himself and his team. Under the old system, Gordon would have qualified for the Daytona 500, however he was unable to make the biggest race of the year due to the new procedure. Gordon now faces more challenges. Due to him not being able to make the race, he did not acquire any major points in the NEXTEL Cup Series, so moving forward throughout the season he'll remain outside of the top 35 and he'll remain there if he's unable to qualify for a race. The result could be loss of sponsorship and one less car in the field. Unfortunately for Gordon, NASCAR made their announcement of this new procedure after Gordon decided to become a car owner.

I have supported NASCAR many times in the past including many of their rule changes from last season. However, NASCAR made a mistake on this one. I understand the need to protect the sponsors and I can even see the value in guaranteeing teams a spot in a race - to a limit. But, I believe NASCAR's move will lock out the little guy from racing by protecting the top 35 teams.

People who follow NASCAR aren't stupid. The majority understands that the ultimate goal in NASCAR is winning the championship. I believe NASCAR could have accomplished what they wanted to do with the qualifying process by making the "protection" number smaller and putting those who are not in the hunt for a championship at a greater risk of not making races. If you are not in the top 15 to 20 teams, then you should be in the same boat with the little guys come qualifying day.

To be frank, it is up to the owners and sponsors to determine if their racing program is working or not. If a team can't qualify for a race against 36 others or they use up their provisionals as some have done in the past, then it's time for those teams to look in the mirror, not get a free pass into the race from NASCAR.

NASCAR drivers are often compared to the quarterback of a football team. The quarterback leads a team's offense through the challenges posed by their competition in an effort to score a touchdown. A NASCAR driver shares similar responsibilities, except the final goal is to cross the finish line as the race winner. However, times have changed for the NASCAR driver. With greater expectations of delivering better performances in a NASCAR world that is changing year after year, the position of NASCAR driver could be better compared to a field goal kicker rather than a quarterback these days.

When dealing with kickers, NFL team owners and coaches have little patience for consistently missing field goals. Today's NASCAR owners and sponsors are in the same boat, they can't afford to be patient like they have been in the past when their driver is not performing consistently. Like many field goal kickers, NASCAR drivers that don't step up their performance quickly could find themselves standing in the unemployment line much sooner than anytime in the past.

Mike got the call to drive this car after Ward Burton was released at end of the 2004 season by Haas CNC Racing. The ownership of the No. 0 has a proven track record of not having patience with their drivers. Look for Mike to begin feeling the pressure from ownership starting with the first race. Even early success should be met with caution when looking at this team. Don't be surprised to see a driver change after the first few races if things don't go well.

This is another one of those touchy ownership situations. The No. 10 team is now in the shadow of their other team car the No. 01 ARMY Chevrolet. Scott is in a position where he will need to perform at a higher level. Last year, Scott finished 29th in the Nextel Cup point standings and the result was a huge setback for this team. In 2003, with Johnny Benson at the wheel this team finished a respectful 24th in Cup point standings. My prediction for this team is if Scott does not perform early in the 2005 season, look for a driver change or at a minimum a shake-up in the management to get this team back on track.

Jeff has showed some spark at times in the No. 43 Dodge for Petty Enterprises, but 2005 will be the make or break year for Jeff. Petty has made improvements to this team and to their overall organization by adding new team members and more power to their Dodges by signing on with Evernham engines. New power will bring greater expectations for the No. 43 team to perform and if Jeff doesn't advance this team to a higher success level over the first few races of the 2005 season, I am sure Petty will begin to search for a new driver.

Last year at this time the racing community saw Scott deal with his DUI charges. We find ourselves a year later and Scott is coming off a very disappointing 2004 season by finishing 27th in the point standings. With no manufacturer support in the Cup Series due to ongoing legal issues between Bill Davis Racing and Dodge, Scott again enters this season with more questions than answers. Can Scott succeed at the Cup level? This is my question and I am not sure he can with the current level of resources he has. However, if Bill Davis Racing's other car, the No. 23 driven by Mike Skinner, Johnny Benson and Bill Lester find success and Scott doesn't, look for Caterpillar to demand changes, resulting in Wimmer's move to the truck series or his release from BDR.

Ah nothing like a new team. Jason takes the wheel of Joe Gibbs Racing's newest Cup team. FedEx is also new to NASCAR. This is a recipe for disaster, just look at the No. 77 from last season. It was a new team, new driver and in one short year they made a driver change. I see this happening for the No. 11 team too. Jason will need to perform at a level that he has been unable to accomplish thus far in his NASCAR career. Unless Jason is running week after week in the top 15, I see a driver change happening just after race number 26 of the 2005 season.

Penske Racing proved to the racing world that they have little patience for upcoming drivers. Last season, Brendan Gaughan was the rookie driver of the No. 77 Dodge and he finished 28th in Cup point standings. That rookie performance lost him his job and I'm sure Travis has this haunting him in the back of his mind. Travis is my pick for winning the Rookie of the Year award, however if he is unable to deliver the goods to the Penske bunch, look for more changes coming down the road.

The rumors surrounding Michael and his tenure at DEI started well before Speed Weeks in Daytona. It's been reported that Michael must deliver a top 10 finish in the point standings or he will be released from DEI. Rumor or not, I believe Michael is ready to move on to the next phase of his career in NASCAR and that's away from DEI. Unless Michael hits a home run this year with his team and his finishing position, he will be out of the No. 15 at the end of the year or as early as race number 26. This is one of those "here's your sign" situations. I see some obvious strategic moves on the part of DEI and whether it's by mutual agreement or not, Michael is onboard. Dale Jr.'s crew from the 2004 season has moved over to the No. 15 car. This is a team that was in the chase for the championship just last year. In my opinion, this team is getting ready for a driver change because Michael is not a Cup level championship driver and moving a team that almost delivered a championship to a driver that is not on the same level, is a major job demotion. But, Martin Truex Jr., last year's Busch Series champion and another DEI driver, is a young driver that has a shot at the Cup championship. To get an established team in place then change drivers to retain the NAPA sponsorship makes perfect sense to me. If by race 18, Michael looks to be off pace and has no chance at the top 10, look for the change to happen. Until that time, just watch Michael's interviews. He is normally a pretty fun guy, so if he seems to be unusually serious you know something is happening internally.

Whether he admits it or not, the retirement drum is beating in the head of Sterling Marlin. One of the most heated marketing battles in the industry is that of the beer providers. For a few years now, Budweiser has been the brand on top of NASCAR's beer mountain. Next year, Miller Lite's driver is retiring and a young gun driver could be in the seat competing against Budweiser's young gun. This leaves Coors the odd man out. Unfortunately, Sterling has not delivered the wins that's normally expected of this team. In the 2002 and 2003 seasons, Sterling finished 18th in the point standings and last season, he finished a disappointing 21st. I believe Coors wants a piece of the young gun pie and to get them to that point they will need to ask Sterling to step aside and take one for the team. Unless Sterling delivers big time this season, we will see him ride off into the sunset.

This one is a hard call, but I believe two factors will take place in the 2005 season that will decide Jeremy's fate with this team. First, will the Dodge Dealers sponsorship want to continue a two-car operation? That is my question. With a young Kasey Kahne in the No. 9 Dodge Dealers Dodge, his popularity maybe all they need to advance forward with their sponsorship. Second, Jeremy and the No. 19 team have set the benchmark that they may be unable to achieve in the 2005 season. Last year, Jeremy and this team made the chase for the championship. Anything less than that in 2005 would be considered a failure. Jeremy will need to advance higher in the top 10 this year and I believe if he is unable to do this, he'll need to try and do it with a different car and team.

I'm going to cut to the chase on this one, I predict that Greg Biffle will not drive for Roush Racing in 2006. You may be wondering why I came to this conclusion so let me explain. First, I believe Greg and Kurt Busch do not like each other and Busch is staying with Roush. Second, Greg who finished 3rd last season in the Busch Series point standings driving a Roush Ford has decided to return to the Busch Series in 2005, however he will be driving for Brewco Motorsports not Roush. This tells me that he is not a hard-core Roush driver and he has no problems rivaling his primary team owner. Third, Greg will be one of the most wanted drivers by other Cup owners in the garage. If I were advising him, I'd tell Greg to shop himself around and not sign anything with Roush until he knows what he is worth in the eyes of the other owners. Greg would be a good fit in any one of the available beer cars, in the No. 1 DEI car if they can secure a sponsor and if Blaney doesn't work out in the No. 07, Biffle could jump in the seat at RCR.

It's prediction time once again. I don't know why we're all so big into predictions, but I like it because I am right most of the time. I'm sure we make predictions for the simple reason of gaining those important bragging rights! You men know what I am talking about! To hold it over the heads of your friends, co-workers and yes, the big time media hounds - that we can predict NASCAR's future better than them, is a great accomplishment. Some can do it and do it well, but some just flat out stink at it and you know who you are! Maybe it's the mental challenge that drives us to predict, but whatever the reason is, we have fun doing it. So without further ado, let's get predicting!

Jimmie Johnson is the Buffalo Bills of NASCAR. In 2003 Jimmie finished second to Matt Kenseth by 90 points and last year he finished second behind Kurt Busch by only eight points. This year Jimmie is housed in the middle of teammates Jeff Gordon, Brian Vickers and rookie Kyle Busch and a very competitive field of drivers who have another year under their belt of learning what Jimmie can do. The 2004 season may be remembered by those in the No. 48 camp as a missed opportunity, but with the new championship format we've learned, opportunities may only knock on the door when you least expect them to. Right Kurt?

Who really cares about racing in Mexico City? Will I watch the Busch Series run around a road course in another country? Sure I will. The Busch Series has a great lineup of talented drivers. But, does it excite me - heck no! What excites me is the fact that the Trucks have an extremely competitive field, every race is on Speed TV where the programming is dedicated to the Trucks and 60% of the races are raced during prime time - that's right, after 8pm.

Not sure what month, but it will happen. The "young gun" movement may suffer a huge setback in 2005. Not all "young guns" have the talent of a Johnson, Newman and Kahne, so someone will get fired and Ward Burton will be the veteran that a needy owner will rely on to get their program back on track. Watch the Tide team or the FedEx team for cracks in their armor or it could be as simple as RCR or Yates adding a new team to their stable.

You know the announcement I'm talking about. He'll hang it up or decide to run a limited schedule in 2006. Sterling doesn't seem to be having fun anymore. It could be the direct result of his injury from a few years ago or it could be the changing of the rules in 2004, whatever it is the "young guns" from Sterling's days are bailing out fast and we will see him follow suit.

This will be the year of Jeff Burton. The marriage with Richard Childress Racing has revived Jeff with a new confidence that we haven't seen in a long time. With no sponsorship worries and a team that is dedicated to him, Jeff will find his way back into the top 10 and secure a place in the chase for the championship. His success will drive the entire Richard Childress Racing organization to the level that Roush Racing has currently been enjoying. Look for good things from the No. 31 team.

Caterpillar, who is the primary sponsor on the No. 22 Dodge is signed through the 2007 season with Bill Davis Racing, however we all know how tough it is to get out of a contract in NASCAR, right? About the only thing good happening at BDR is their Truck Series program and without a doubt, it's one of the best. As for their NEXTEL Cup Series and Busch Series programs, things are so bright. BDR's 2004 Busch Series driver Kenny Wallace has bailed from the organization with the BDR's Busch Series sponsor. Dodge has a major lawsuit against BDR and has stopped their financial support of the No. 22 team and to make things worst, crew chief Frank Stoddard was released from the No. 22 team late last year. Caterpillar could be losing patience with the entire BDR situation including a horrid 2004 season from their "young gun" driver, Scott Wimmer. Let's not forget that Wimmer was arrested last year before the Daytona 500 for DUI in addition to finishing the 2004 season in 27th place in points. BDR may need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to retain Caterpillar like placing an experienced Johnny Benson in the car or making wholesale changes at the shop like closing the engine shop and buying new ones from Penske or Evernham. But, for some odd reason my gut tells me we could see a reunion between Ward Burton and Caterpillar, however it will be far away from BDR's front door. Hey Ward, do you have their number?

I know you thought it would be Kyle Busch, but it won't. I've nailed this one for three years straight and believe me Travis takes this one - barely. Don't get me wrong, Kyle Busch is going to be a great driver in the years to come, it's just not going to happen in 2005. The Penske group has an eye for talent and Travis will take advantage of his big time opportunity. I believe Travis understands what it takes to be patient and races with respect. Plus, he's a NASCAR Truck Champion! The rookie race will be very close, but don't be surprised to see Kyle involved in a few more wrecks than Travis and wrecks will make the difference. Sorry Kyle, but an imperfect Kodak moment beats out soggy Kellogg's Corn Flakes in 2005.

Kevin Harvick and Joe Nemechek have more in common than just driving Chevrolets. They both are also good at Daytona. In the last two Daytona 500's, Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 5. In the last two races at Daytona, Joe Nemechek has finished inside the top 10. What does this tell me? Momentum is on their side! Sure, Harvick skipped Daytona testing, however he did test his Busch Series car at Daytona and to describe the outcome in simple terms - he rocked! For Joe, the U.S. Army Chevrolet was one of the fastest cars during the Daytona test and like Harvick he also rocked. If anyone can stop the DEI and Hendrick boys it may very well be Harvick or Nemechek.

A blind man can see this coming! All kidding aside Waltrip fans, Michael could be looking at his last full year in the NEXTEL Cup Series. I am sure he will race a few races on the schedule after 2005, but look for Michael to run nothing but full time Busch Series races and some Craftsman Truck Series races after 2005. DEI has hinted that if Michael doesn't place in the top 10 in points at the end of the year, his services will no longer be needed. But, the departure will be mutual and I am sure Michael will continue to use DEI engines in the Aaron's Dream Machine. He'll run for the 2006 Busch Series championship and have a great chance at winning it.

Drive for five in 2005 may become a reality. I would have said Dale Earnhardt Jr., but with him changing crew chiefs, I think he is another year away from his first of many championships. Jeff has experience and a solid team in his garage and it will pay dividends this year. His only weakness is the other team he co-owns with Rick Hendrick, the No. 48 Jimmie Johnson team. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you look at the situation, Jeff's other team may actually be the thorn that comes back and sticks him. Whether it's his first championship as an owner or his fifth championship as a driver, one thing is worth predicting - Jeff Gordon will take the championship in 2005.